What is the difference between hindsight bias and confirmation bias?
Hindsight bias and confirmation bias are both types of cognitive bias and can distort our perception. Although they are related, they are distinct types of bias.
Hindsight bias refers to how knowing the outcome of a past event gives it a sense of predictability in the present, making it harder for us to consider other possible outcomes. In other words, it causes us to look at the past in a biased way due to knowledge or information that is only available to us in the present.
Confirmation bias refers to how our current values and beliefs function as a filter through which we select and recall information. If the information doesn’t align with what we already believe to be true, we simply dismiss it.
In other words, hindsight bias is a belief-updating process (we update past thoughts because of new information), while confirmation bias is a belief-alignment process (we select information that agrees with what we already think.)