How can I identify a post hoc fallacy?

When someone uses an argument that claims there is a causal connection between two events, you can take the following steps to determine whether this is a post hoc fallacy:

  • Is the causal connection presented as an absolute truth or as a possibility? Absolute statements often signal a leap in logic.
  • Do they have evidence to back up their claim, other than the chronological order of events? If not, it is a case of post hoc fallacy.
  • When in doubt, ask the other person to elaborate on their reasoning and offer supporting evidence.