How to avoid base rate fallacy?
Base rate fallacy can be avoided by following these steps:
- Avoid making an important decision in haste. When we are under pressure, we are more likely to resort to cognitive shortcuts like the availability heuristic and the representativeness heuristic. Due to this, we are more likely to factor in only current and vivid information, and ignore the actual probability of something happening (i.e., base rate).
- Take a long-term view on the decision or question at hand. Look for relevant statistical data, which can reveal long-term trends and give you the full picture.
- Talk to experts like professionals. They are more aware of probabilities related to specific decisions.